Weekly Lookback: How good is the Wolves' defense and do they play faster without Gobert?
In his second attempt to write this week's newsletter, Derek looks at the state of the team's defense after 10 games and the offense without Rudy Gobert.
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This is not the first edition of this week’s newsletter I have written. No, I tried writing earlier this week as Kyrie Irving, Josh Primo and Ime Udoka (again) justifiably pulled the focus of the news cycle from the court to off of it. The reason I did not finish it was because each of these stories deserve a certain amount weight that I did not feel like I was able to. Which is fine, you can find great work on these topics like Ben Hochman’s (St. Louis Post-Dispatch) piece, after meeting with the St. Louis Holocaust Museum in the wake of Irving sharing anti-semitic content from his social media and later doubling and tripling down.
Following the NBA these past few months has been such a roller coaster that it is hard to believe the regular season is not even three weeks old.
Nonetheless, there was basketball played this past week. The Timberwolves got their first taste of the best teams in the league, followed by Houston on the second night of a back-to-back. Now that the dust has settled, the Timberwolves sit at 5-5 and in 10th place in the Western Conference.
This outcome probably meets the lower expectations for this team. I would not expect them to finish .500, just like I don’t think the Warriors are going to continue on their .300 pace or the Jazz to continue at .700 percent. At some point, I expect teams like these to progress or regress closer to the mean. Though, the first quarter of the season is often informative and we may be seeing certain teams as being better or worse than initially expected.
What To Make Of This Defense
It’s interesting to see the Timberwolves with a 20th-ranked offense and ninth-ranked defense. The Wolves are a middle-of-the-pack shooting team, but really don’t get to the line. Again, this will probably improve as the season wears on but is interesting to see now.
Seeing the team’s defense as Top 10 after watching how it stood up to the best talent in the league is almost…encouraging? We saw how Chris Paul, especially in the third quarter, surgically dissected the Timberwolves defense and found Cam Johnson or Devin Booker for easy open 3s. There were other instances where the Wolves would miss a rotation and allow an easy layup for the Sun. And that was with Gobert playing.
In both the Suns and Bucks games, we saw how these elite teams were able to balloon their leads in the third quarters. The Timberwolves’ offense did avoid letting these deficits become complete catastrophes and let the game get away. Despite the high-ranking defense, there seems to be plenty they are still figuring out.
"I thought from the offensive point of view, for larger periods we did a good job of generating some good shots. We didn’t make them, we haven’t shot the ball well all season,” said Chris Finch after Friday’s loss to the Bucks. “Then in those moments when you need a little bit more composure, that’s when we took some early threes even though they were probably open, but we lose the ball there.”
“Defensively it was one of those nights where, were gonna see a lot of them, matchups out there with different guys and different coverages at different times. We just got to get a feel for it. There was a lot of just mistakes that were made and some of those that again it’s just having guys a little but out of position and not used to executing their coverages in the heat of the moment.”
Anthony Edwards, man of brevity, said “Probably, some bad shots. They got out in transition. Miscommunication on switches and stuff” when asked what the team’s defensive issues were against the Bucks.
I have a hard time faulting any team for not stopping Giannis, but it really seems like this offense kept them in these games. Yet, these games weren’t close. They had two lead changes in the Bucks game and just one in the Suns game. Their biggest lead against Milwaukee was one and five against Phoenix. By contrast, the Bucks led by as much as 22 points and the Suns by 18. They hung around but never really threatened and containing these teams with as many mistakes as they made on defense was difficult.
What’s interesting was Karl-Anthony Towns’ take on the team’s defense after the Houston game.
"Yeah, I mean the ball's moving. We shot a high percentage today, like I said on the court. It was really good for our guys and us to see the ball go through the hoop more than not, and to shoot the way we did, build some confidence, I think that's something that's been lacking in our offense, never in our defense, but our offense did a good job.”
“Obviously, we didn't play the best defense first, third, and fourth, we gotta fix that up, tune that up, but we did a great job in the second quarter of showing what we could be when we're all locked in. Good game, good way to win, I'm proud of our guys bouncing back from a tough game yesterday and playing with the intensity needed."
I guess it’s encouraging that this defense could rank so high but still be such a work in progress. I’ve said it before but I’m very curious where this team is in the standings at the end of the season.
Do The Timberwolves Play Faster Without Gobert?
Rudy Gobert missed Saturday’s contest against the Rockets because he entered the league’s health and safety protocol. This was interested against a young and scrappy Rockets team after seeing some of their games against teams with similar profiles, like the Spurs and Thunder.
The Timberwolves put together a solid wire-to-wire, 129-117 victory at Target Center. But what was interesting was the 39 assists, 36 points off turnovers and 23 fast break points. Despite 24 team turnovers, it never felt like the game was in serious danger of slipping away.
Yet, watching this team was interesting in how fast they seemed to play. Statistically, this is not a slow team. They are currently fourth in pace among all teams and Gobert has missed just the one game. Nonetheless, I feel like I’m going crazy reading all the numbers after watching this game. The Rockets are one of the most turnover prone teams in the league, but still.
Am I imagining things? Let’s ask Jrue Holliday about how different he thinks the Timberwolves are with Gobert:
“A little different, the seem a little slower, bigger on defense, but maybe just a little slower. I think when they put that second unit in they get a little bit more of a pace, the ball moves a little bit more. I feel that kinda gives them variety, to play against teams like us who have a bigger team but at the same time they can always go small and kind of run up and down.”
This is exactly what it feels like watching. According to Basketball-Reference, the early-season on/off numbers for Gobert tell the story of an offense that improves but also shows a worsening defense when he’s off the floor:
Is this good or bad? It’s hard to say at this point. It certainly seemed like players like Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell were more comfortable playing that up-and-down style. Of course, it’s easier when you’re getting back before the opposition has the chance to get set on defense.
Another Big Week Ahead
The schedule is certainly becoming more difficult for the Hometown Five. There are four games on the slate this week: Monday versus New York and Wednesday versus Phoenix before heading to Memphis and Cleveland next Friday and Sunday. A split here seems satisfactory but at some point, the moral victories have to stop and this team has to start beating someone.
Excellent analysis Derek! My biggest fear with the Golbert trade wasn’t the picks, but the modification of tempo played!