Timberwolves' Playoff Hopes Fade: Down 3-0 to Mavericks
Down 3-0 to the Mavericks, the Timberwolves face an uphill battle. With Doncic and Irving dominating, can Minnesota turn the tide and keep their playoff hopes alive?
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Just a week ago, I was previewing the Timberwolves-Mavericks series after Minnesota beat Denver in a road Game 7. The vibes were great and optimism was rampant. Now, the Timberwolves find themselves down 3-0 to the Mavericks. You could have told me the Mavericks won this series and I would have believed it. However, I would have been surprised, much like I am now, if they were on track to lose a series in this way. Sure, the series is not over, but much like the Pacers with the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, no one has ever come back from 3-0 before.
There is so much with playoff basketball that comes down to matchups. This Wolves team was designed to beat the Nuggets and achieved that. Dallas is such a different animal since they were reconfigured 3.5 months ago and operate dramatically different than Denver. The Mavericks have the size to match the Timberwolves, even without the same level of star power. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are two elite creating ballhandlers, rather than one incredible facilitating big man. Maybe if the smaller Thunder had beaten the Mavs, the Wolves would have a more favorable matchup, but this series has been largely close.
As this team is learning, the margins in these games are razor thin. Each game has felt just out of reach for the Timberwolves. Unlike the Timberwolves, there have been no blowouts but just a handful of possessions determining the game. Yet, even when the Mavs led by five or six points, it felt like it should have been double digits in Game 3.
Yeah, the Timberwolves are getting beat by two great scorers, but their offense has suffered. There was one possession where Mike Conley missed a contested 3 with three seconds left in the shot clock because they never got the ball inside the 3-point arc. Nearly 24 seconds and that was the best shot they could get. If that was not exemplary of their woes, I don’t know what is.
Game 3 left me with a few thoughts on this series so far and what lies ahead.
A Tale of Two Star Duos
A big reason the Wolves are where they are is their two stars are losing the battle to Dallas’. Much like Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Finley in 2002, Doncic and Irving are torching the Timberwolves any time they touch the ball. Here’s what they have done through the first three games of this series:
Doncic: 32.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 8.7 apg and 2.7 spg | 46.4/40.6/87.5 shooting
Irving: 27.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.7 apg | 52.5/43.8/73.7
It’s not that the Timberwolves aren’t doing something against them, it’s just that nothing they’ve done has mattered. No matter who they put on these guys, they’re still scoring. In Game 3, Minnesota picked up Doncic and mid-court — some 45-feet from the basket — and could still swing the ball to an open teammate. The shots these guys are taking have been well contested too.Sometimes guys just heat up and in a seven-games series, can decide the outcome.
We know Anthony Edwards has not been himself, shooting below 40 percent in the series, but Edwards is also suffering from a lack of consistent secondary scoring. Even with five players in double figures last night, the Timberwolves did not have enough. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been a complete non-threat in this series, though Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels contributed meaningful points on Sunday. However, the lack of reliability and consistency is what has hampered them and there is one guy who should provide that and has not.
Talking About Towns
This is not about scapegoating Karl-Anthony Towns; the team is not in this hole because of him alone. But in a series that has come down to a handful of possessions in each games, he is somewhat culpable for their situation. Through three games, Towns is 15-for-54 from the field (27.8%) and 3-for-22 (13.6 percent). Sure, he grabbed 11 boards and still looked engaged in Game 3, but the team has needed more from him.
Towns is 28 years and made all-star and All-NBA teams. He has now played in five playoff series. This is not the same situation as Edwards or Jaden McDaniels at 22 and 23 years old gaining experience. We should be able to expect more from Towns.
Sunday night, Anderson hit a floater to tie the game at 104 with 4:35 remaining. The Timberwolves did not score again until a Naz Reid free throw with 3:21. Minnesota did not score again when Edwards made a layup with 15.3 seconds remaining. In that span, Towns missed two good looks from 3 after checking back into the game at the 3:07 mark.
What makes Towns different from Rudy Gobert is that Gobert is not an offensive player in the way that you give him the ball for him to create his shot. It’s not his game. Gobert’s impact has been minimized by the red-hot shooting of the Mavs’ stars and it’s not as easy to simply roll to the rim against Dallas’ size. Towns, the self-proclaimed greatest-shooting big man of all-time, is a guy who is a scorer and from multiple levels of the floor. Right now, Towns is not scoring from anywhere despite getting some good looks.
Do We Need a Game 4?
Things look bleak right now but the Timberwolves at least have their pride left to play for. It would be surprising for this team to go out sad given their resiliency all season long. The odds may be stacked against them but they can still win a game. Who knows, maybe they win Game 4 and send it back to Minneapolis for Game 5 and can push this to six or seven.
If that is going to happen, the Timberwolves are going to need to change a lot and find answers to question they have not seemed close to finding. It’s not a moral victory as much as it is about feeling fine about how this team went out. While a Mavericks Finals berth may be inevitable, it does not have to be imminent. I would still expect Minnesota to play hard and make Dallas earn it again late in the game even if they lose.
Socials Update
So, I left Twitter in September and rejoined last week. You can follow me here @ ByDerekJames. After Game 2, I may not have written, but I did a video blog on my newly-created YouTube channel because I didn't have my laptop or recording mic. I put it in a note and either it got no visibility or no one cared (it’s possible). Check it out and let me know what you think. I have toyed with this idea before and would like to create this and put them in future newsletter updates.